Don't Bet Your Career on the H-1B Lottery: A Career Strategy Built So You Cannot Lose, for Chinese and Korean Professionals in U.S. Graduate Schools and U.S. Companies

Hello, I'm Toshihiko Irisumi (TJ), Founder and CEO of Alpha Academy. I began my career at Sumitomo Corporation, where I worked in corporate accounting, was posted to New York, and then moved to project finance, before the company sponsored my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. After Booth, I joined the Investment Banking Division of Goldman Sachs, where I worked on M&A advisory and capital raising. I then founded Alpha Academy, and over the past 18+ years we have supported more than 80,000 people with their careers, job changes, and graduate school admissions. Today, through our U.S. entity Alpha Academy, Inc., based in Cambridge, Massachusetts (1 Broadway, Cambridge, MA), we are fully committed to supporting Asian professionals who are building their careers in the United States.

This article is written for professionals from China and Korea who are studying at U.S. graduate schools or working at U.S. companies.

Let me say one thing before anything else.

You survived the most brutal entrance exam competition in the world. You built deep expertise in a language that is not your mother tongue. You crossed the Pacific, got into a top school, and made it all the way to delivering results at some of the best companies on earth. The sheer amount of effort you have accumulated over the past 15 years puts you in the top 1% of your generation worldwide.

And yet, the America of 2026 is not rewarding that effort the way it should.

Your visa is a lottery. Policy changes overnight. Layoff notices arrive regardless of how good you are. And the seemingly reasonable idea that "if you're good enough, you'll be able to stay" is no longer a strategy in today's America.

After 18+ years and more than 80,000 careers, there is one thing I can say with certainty. The reason things are hard right now is not that you lack ability. It is that your career depends on a single country and a single scenario.

In this article, I will look squarely at what is happening in the United States in 2026, in numbers. Then I will lay out the career strategy we advocate at Alpha Academy where you cannot lose: designing three scenarios in parallel, covering the U.S., Japan/Asia, and your home country. It takes ten minutes to read. Those ten minutes may change your next ten years.

1. What Is Actually Happening in the U.S. in 2026: The Numbers

Let's set emotion aside and start with the facts.

The H-1B is decided by luck, not merit.

For FY2025, there were 470,342 H-1B registrations and a selection rate of roughly 29%. For FY2026, 343,981 registrations produced 120,141 selections, a rate of about 35.3%. In other words, no matter how talented you are, two out of three people lose. That has been the reality for the past several years.

Starting with FY2027, a new system weights selection odds by wage level. Estimates suggest that Wage Level IV (senior professionals) will see selection rates of 55 to 70%, while Level I (early career and new graduates) drops to 10 to 18%. The younger you are and the closer you are to graduation, the more structurally disadvantaged you have become.

Policy changes overnight.

On September 21, 2025, a presidential proclamation suddenly took effect imposing a $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions for beneficiaries outside the U.S. You remember how international students and employers around the world froze. Then, on June 8, 2026, the federal district court in Massachusetts ruled the proclamation unlawful, and on July 24 the appeals court denied the government's request to resume enforcement. As of today, the fee is not being collected.

Did you think, "Good, that's over"? It isn't. What matters is that the federal district court in Washington, D.C. reached the opposite conclusion in December 2025 and upheld the fee, so the courts are split and the issue may well end up at the Supreme Court. Your visa environment will keep swinging with court rulings and the whims of whoever is in the White House. The $100,000 fee is just one example. The uncertainty itself is the single biggest risk to your career.

Layoffs are running at the fastest pace on record.

Tech industry layoffs totaled 122,606 people across 278 companies for all of 2025. In 2026, the count had already reached 126,305 by August 14. With four and a half months still to go, this year has surpassed all of last year. Meta announced a 10% workforce reduction citing its shift to AI, and Amazon, Salesforce, LinkedIn, and other household names continue to cut headcount. And the primary driver is not the business cycle. It is structural job displacement by generative AI. This wave will not end "once the economy recovers."

When an H-1B holder is laid off, the grace period to find the next job is, as a rule, 60 days. I have seen, over and over, in consultation after consultation, how these 60 days have upended the lives of brilliant Asian professionals. I have seen the tears.

Competition is at a record high.

According to Open Doors 2025, the number of OPT participants in the U.S. reached 294,253, up 21.2% year over year, a record. Because the H-1B has become so hard, everyone is piling into OPT, and a record number of people are fighting over the same limited pool of sponsored positions. Meanwhile, the number of Chinese international students fell to 265,919 (down 4.1%), and Korean students to 42,293 (down 2.0%). The numbers show clearly that America is narrowing its gate.

By now your stomach may feel heavy. But I did not lay out these numbers to frighten you. I laid them out because only those who accurately understand the battlefield can build the right strategy.

2. "Keep Your Head Down and Deliver" Is a Structurally Losing Game in America

There is another problem that many Chinese and Korean professionals face but find hard to say out loud: the bamboo ceiling.

Look at the data. Asian Americans are among the most highly educated groups in the United States, yet they hold only 4% of Fortune 1000 board seats. Research published in Harvard Business Review found that Asians are the least likely of all racial groups to be promoted into management. Depending on the survey, 75 to 90% of respondents say Asians are seen as diligent, reliable workers but not as leaders, and 41% of AAPI professionals report experiencing discrimination in hiring or promotion.

Why does this happen? I lived this question firsthand in Goldman Sachs IBD.

Those of us raised in East Asian education systems have a success formula drilled into our bodies: deliver overwhelming results quietly, and the people above you will notice. In China, in Korea, in Japan, that was true. But in American organizations, results only turn into recognition once they are articulated, made visible, and circulated politically. Putting your contribution to a deal into words. Selling yourself to your boss's boss. Explicitly declaring that you want the promotion. None of this is arrogance. It is part of the job.

In other words, at least part of the bamboo ceiling is not only an external factor called discrimination. It is a technical problem: your operating system for how to compete has not been switched over to the American version. And if it is a technical problem, it can be learned. And if it can be learned, you can win. I fought on the front lines of Wall Street as an Asian without native English, and over the following 18+ years I have helped tens of thousands of Asians rewrite that operating system and get promoted at foreign investment banks, consulting firms, global tech companies, and funds.

From how to write a single line on your resume, to how assertive to be in an interview, to when to negotiate a promotion, there is a "winning form" for every one of these in America. Competing without knowing it is like stepping onto the field without reading the rulebook.

3. "If It Doesn't Work Out, I'll Just Go Home" Is No Longer a Safe Fallback

At this point, many people think: "Worst case, I go back home. People with overseas experience are always welcome there."

That premise has already collapsed.

In China, the premium on a foreign degree is evaporating fast. In June 2025, Caixin reported that "Western degrees are losing their cachet as Chinese returnees face a harsh job market." In September 2025, CNN described Chinese overseas students caught in limbo between the U.S. and China, calling them "targeted abroad and shunned at home." A U.S. degree that was once a golden ticket is now sometimes priced in the Beijing and Shanghai hiring markets as "an expensive hire with no practical experience." That is the reality.

Korea is no different. The doors of Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and LG remain narrow, and the era when overseas returnees were automatically favored is over. Returning at an older age is harder still, given how much Korea's corporate culture is driven by seniority.

Don't misunderstand me. I am not saying that going home is a bad choice. I am saying that going home without a strategy is dangerous. If you go back, when do you go, into what position, and with what in hand? When and through which route does your U.S. experience sell at its highest value? Going home simply "because America didn't work out," without designing any of this, is a fire sale of your career.

Let's sum up. Staying in the U.S. exposes you to lottery and policy risk. Going home exposes you to degree deflation. A career plan that stands on a single leg breaks no matter which leg you stand on.

So what do you do?

4. The Third Option: A Winning Path Called "Japan and Asia" That You Haven't Seen Yet

This is what I most want Chinese and Korean professionals to hear right now.

Japan, as a nation, is actively coming to recruit highly skilled talent exactly like you.

Under the J-Skip system launched in 2023, if you hold a master's degree and meet the prescribed income requirements, you are granted "Special Highly Skilled Professional" status immediately, with no points calculation, and you become eligible to apply for permanent residency in as little as one year. For graduates of the world's top universities, there is also the J-Find visa for job hunting.

Now compare that with the United States. No lottery. No $100,000 fee. No being forced out of the country 60 days after a layoff. Japan is one of the few major markets where your education and ability are evaluated exactly as they are.

And Tokyo has offices of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, McKinsey, BCG, global tech companies, and the world's leading asset managers and funds, with more English speaking positions every year. Japanese global companies, including trading houses, manufacturers, and financial institutions, are hungry for people who combine Chinese and English, or Korean and English. For you, as a professional from China or Korea, Japan is a market that sits two to three hours from home, keeps you close to family, offers a high quality of life, and, critically, treats your U.S. degree and U.S. work experience as a premium, not a discount.

Let me be candid. There are almost no career advisors in America who can actually open this "Japan/Asia door." U.S. career coaches know only the U.S. market; headhunters in your home country know only that market. A firm born in Japan with 18+ years and 80,000+ people supported, deeply embedded in hiring at Tokyo's foreign and Japanese global companies, and at the same time based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, watching the U.S. job market every single day. A firm that knows both sides. I am confident there is no one else but Alpha Academy.

5. Alpha Academy's Three Scenario Design: Protect Your Career by Design, Not by Luck

The first thing we do with a client is not introduce job openings. It is to design your career across three scenarios simultaneously.

Scenario A: Win and stay in the U.S. A job change strategy engineered backward from your H-1B / O-1 visa timeline. How to target employers resilient to the lottery (institutions exempt from the cap, transfers after selection). Positioning to raise your Wage Level and thereby your selection odds. Internal moves into roles that won't be cut in the age of AI layoffs. And a thorough American style approach to your resume, LinkedIn, interview performance, and compensation negotiation.

Scenario B: Break out in Japan and Asia. Support for moving to foreign financial institutions, consulting firms, tech companies, and funds in Tokyo, as well as Japanese global companies. Visa strategy including J-Skip. Options across major Asian markets including Singapore and Hong Kong. Using our job platform, Alpha Career, and the corporate network we have built over 18+ years, we connect your U.S. experience with the buyers who will value it most highly.

Scenario C: Go home as a winner. If you return, return only after assembling a package of "practical experience + position + timing" that holds its value even amid returnee degree deflation. Designing a "triumphant return" route via an internal transfer to a foreign company's China or Korea office, or via a regional leadership position covering Asia.

The key is not to pick one of these three, but to run all three at once. Market conditions and visa policy change every month. Keep all three doors open at the same time, and walk through whichever opens with the best terms. That is the real meaning of a career strategy in which you cannot lose. It is one that is not at the mercy of lotteries, policies, or layoff notices.

And let me talk about timing. The job market moves in earnest in the fall. To win in the October to November interview rush, working backward, the right move is to have your resume, work history, LinkedIn, and interview answers finished in September. The "someday" in "I'll get advice someday" is now.

One last thing. Among the people who have successfully changed jobs with our support, there is a single "most important move" that every one of them, without exception, executed. It is the core of the core of our know-how, so I will not write it in this article. We share it directly, and only, with those who come to consult with us.

6. Why You Should Talk to Me

There are countless career coaches in the world. So why us?

First, because I have been where you are. As an Asian without native English, in the classrooms of Chicago Booth and on the deal floor of Goldman Sachs IBD, I hit the same walls you are hitting, and I got through them. I know this not from textbooks, but in my bones.

Second, our track record. 18+ years. 80,000+ people. Foreign investment banks, strategy consulting firms, global tech, PE and hedge funds, Japanese trading houses, top MBA programs and graduate schools: we have built a record of helping people reach the very top in the U.S., Japan, and across Asia.

Third, because the infrastructure for you already exists. From Alpha Academy, Inc. in Cambridge, Massachusetts, we are fully committed to supporting Asian professionals in the U.S. Consultations are available in English or Japanese. For professionals from China and Korea, we are the only firm that can design your next move within the U.S., your expansion into Japan and Asia, and your triumphant return home, all on a single table.

The effort you have accumulated is real. But that effort only converts into its rightful market value when it is brought to the right market, presented the right way, at the right time.

Let today be the day you stop handing control of your life to a lottery, a policy, or a layoff notice. Come to an initial career consultation, and let's map out, together, where you stand today and your three scenarios.

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TJ Profile

TJ: Formerly with Sumitomo Corporation, where he worked in the Corporate Accounting Department overseeing budgeting, financial reporting, and performance management for over 800 domestic and overseas group companies, as well as IR (Investor Relations) activities. Selected as the youngest trainee for Sumitomo Corporation of America (New York), where he contributed to the restructuring of a U.S. electric arc furnace steel business invested in by Sumitomo. Later joined the Project Finance Department, where he was engaged in arranging large-scale financings for infrastructure projects in developing countries and financing for Jupiter Telecommunications. Selected as a company-sponsored candidate for overseas MBA programs.

Earned his MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, with concentrations in Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Organizational Management. Founder of the University of Chicago Japanese Association. Initiated and executed the school’s first-ever “Japan Trip”, which has since become an annual tradition.

Subsequently joined Goldman Sachs Japan’s Investment Banking Division, where he advised on numerous M&A transactions in the media and consumer sectors, supported capital raising including IPOs, and worked on private equity investments and corporate restructuring assignments.

Selected as one of only six fellows (out of over 200 applicants) for the 4th Entrepreneurial Leadership Program of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives (Keizai Doyukai), where he received mentorship from leading entrepreneurs including Hideo Sawada, Chairman of H.I.S.

Served as President of the Chicago Booth Alumni Association in Japan (2006–2010). Has guided numerous candidates to admission at top MBA programs (Harvard, Stanford, and other leading schools in the U.S., Europe, and Asia), graduate schools, universities, and boarding schools. Track record of placing students at leading global firms including Mitsubishi Corporation, McKinsey & Company, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Google, Big 4 consulting/FAS, Dentsu, Toyota, MUFG Bank, Nomura Securities, among others.

Renowned for his rigorous one-on-one coaching for TOEFL, GMAT, IELTS, and GRE, with a reputation for pushing candidates to fully complete their preparation. Highly regarded for his ability to design and achieve career and academic goals with unmatched quality and precision. As a result, he is in high demand as an advisor, with numerous requests to work directly under his guidance.